| I’m in Tampa this week masterminding with some of the biggest and brightest in real estate, not just in the United States, but in the entire world. It’s been an honor to be able to rub elbows and share knowledge with these incredible people. What I really love about these meetings is chatting and networking between the sessions. And I always try to figure out where the market might be headed by sitting in on some deep conversations. I get to hear the inside baseball from some of the most connected and biggest players in the game. The intelligence and knowledge in this room is incredible. What I’m about to share will probably scare most investors. But if what I’m hearing is true, it means nothing but huge profits and unbridled success for us lucky investors who are diving deep into the probate niche. So what’s the rumor mill telling me? Well there seem to be two camps. One is telling me commercial real estate is in for a rude awakening. A recession is imminent starting as soon as next month but not becoming official until early 2024. The word on the street is that despite this, the housing market will not collapse like it did in 2008. But that doesn’t mean things are going peachy. Inventory is going to continue to be tight and competition is going to be fierce. The other camp is saying that money is going to tighten up. Some banks might fail. Inventory will remain tight. Things aren’t going to be as bleak as the first group, but the market for most investors will become more challenging. Which camp is 100% correct? Probably a bit of both. The actual reality usually lies somewhere in the middle. But here’s the big one. AI is going to be able to pinpoint the exact properties that are going to sell and precisely when they are going to sell. On top of that, AI robo dialers that are indistinguishable from humans will be calling these people on autopilot. Think this all sounds far-fetched and crazy? I’ve talked with people who are testing this in beta as we speak and it’s working. So why am I excited about all of this? Shouldn’t this mean that our role as investors is going to get a lot harder and margins even thinner? Nope. Not for us. In fact, it’s going to be even better for us in the probate space because while everyone is chasing after AI, we’ll be quietly in the background creating relationships and solving problems for families stuck in probate. Creating genuine relationships, empathy, and patience are skills many investors (and especially AI) just don’t have. Our business is about being a good human being to another human being. As probate investors, we are always in control regardless of what the market does. If you do that right, you won’t just cruise through the craziness we’re headed into. You’re going to come out on top of everyone. To your success, Ernie “Always In Control” Vargas | The Probate Fox |
September 27
My Real Estate Crystal Ball For 2024
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